When you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. – Lewis Carroll.
This is true in life, careers, and our financial futures. It is particularly relevant when the stock market is as volatile as it has been throughout 2020. Our human tendency is to react in ways that undermine our long-term investment success, motivated through either fear or greed. We are especially susceptible when we don’t have clarity about where we are going
In her recent CityBusiness article, Suzanne outlines 3 tips to choosing the road for your financial future. Click here to read more.
https://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.png00Suzanne Mestayerhttps://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.pngSuzanne Mestayer2020-09-15 06:24:362020-09-15 07:11:03Choosing the Right Financial Road
I love when a chart makes you do a double take. When a chart makes you go “Yes!” but then after another minute “Oh”.
Because municipal bond yield is usually exempt from state, local and federal taxes, investors are willing to take less yield than they would for a treasury – thus the squiggly line is under 100 most of the time.
Cue 2020. Yield from 10-year yield from municipals is now better than what we can get from a 10-year treasury.
Wait, wait, before you think you figured out how to get some steady income from municipal issued bonds, it’s worth a pause to remember the math driving the line in this chart. The 10-year treasury yield (the base of the number) has gone from well over 2% to about .70%. It doesn’t take much muni yield to create a number that will graph higher than 100.
In fact, muni yield has been on a wild ride in 2020, but has settled out at an all-time low as well. Ouch! The main advantage of buying a municipal fund is the tax savings on the yield. Unfortunately, this space is also facing significant challenges as municipalities and states struggle with revenue losses during COVID. It is unclear how badly our local governments are struggling because their fiscal year has just ended, and they don’t report for several more months.
https://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.png00Sarah Bomhoff, CFA, CIPMhttps://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.pngSarah Bomhoff, CFA, CIPM2020-09-11 07:25:122020-09-11 07:25:12Thoughts in Charts: Municipal Bond Double-Take
One of the most important choices we have with our investments is the allocation of our dollars. How much will we invest in stocks, in bonds, or in any other assets? Large or small, growth or value? Studies have shown that over 90% of the returns on our investments are driven by this very basic decision. It should not be taken lightly, and many questions should be asked to help determine which allocation makes the most sense for our situation and risk tolerance.
As we read about this topic, we often find that 60% stocks/40% bonds has become almost a classic for a balanced portfolio. Do we really believe this to be the right allocation, or are we just unwittingly using 60/40 more often than not? Most importantly, it should reflect our unique needs and goals.
There are times when an investor will likely want to invest more or less aggressively. For example, a 100% stock portfolio may be great when you are 35, with a very long runway until retirement to absorb market fluctuations. It’s not always so wise when you need to tap your investments for living expenses in retirement.
The best retirement plans consider the answers to a host of differing questions:
Do you have health concerns?
Do you plan to retire completely or gradually reduce your work life?
How do you plan to use your time? Travel? Hobbies? For how long?
Are you depended upon for the needs of other family members? Caretaking responsibilities, or financial needs?
Do you know how much it will cost to maintain your desired standard of living? Will you really cut your costs, or will the costs of your post-retirement simply replace your current spending?
What is your best strategy for claiming Social Security benefits?
Your answers to these questions, as well as many others, should create a plan reflective of you and your needs.
Why is the 60/40 allocation so common? It’s a good balance when you need it.
The 60% often reflects the need for continued investment growth historically obtained from stocks. With life expectancy increasing, many people are planning a 30+ year retirement. In contrast, bonds traditionally provide relative stability and fixed income. In our current low interest rate environment, though, the income aspect may become harder to achieve. As we age in retirement, the stocks/bonds ratio may move to 50/50 then to 40/60 and so on. It should be a process customized to your situation.
In the years leading up to your retirement, you should carefully consider your very personal answers to the questions above and plan accordingly. And don’t be surprised if it leads to a 60% stocks/40% bonds allocation along the way!
We talk a lot about 401(k) plans, but many nonprofit organizations including churches, non-profit hospitals and public-school systems use the 403(b) as a qualified retirement plan for employees. And, like the 401(k), you can “catch-up” in the 403(b), which has a very interesting additional catch-up provision. As in a 401(k), employees who are 50 years of age and older in a 403(b) can make contributions beyond the maximum allowed. These amounts are determined annually. For 2020, employees can save $19,500 and those over 50 can make a catch-up contribution of an additional $6,500.
Here is where it gets interesting. As long as the plan allows, employees with 15 years of service are eligible to make a catch-up contribution prior to reaching 50 year of age. Of course, there is a limit to how much, which is determined by the lesser of:
$3,000
$15,000, reduced by the amount of additional elective deferrals made in prior years because of this rule
$5,000 times the number of the employee’s years of service for the organization, minus the total elective deferrals made for earlier years.
You might wonder, what happens if an employee is eligible for both the 50-year-old and the 15 years of service catch-up provisions. As long as the plan allows, the participant can use both. However, the 15-year catch-up is subject to a lifetime limit of $15,000 as well as other tests; and savings in excess of the limit must be first applied to the 15-year catch-up. Additionally, Click here for additional information on 403(b) contribution limits. And, make sure you talk to your tax professional before taking advantage of this potentially great way to save more for retirement through your 403(b) plan.
https://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.png00Fritz Gomilahttps://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.pngFritz Gomila2020-09-02 10:12:442020-09-02 10:12:44Thin(k) About Your 403(b) Plan: Catch-Up Contributions – A 403(b) Plan’s Special Extra
I took a trip to Europe after I graduated from college. My parents bought the plane ticket, and I was responsible for my “walking around” money. I wasn’t in the habit of following the currency market, so standing at the exchange counter it was pretty devastating to realize that my $500 was actually just going to be €367 Euros. Yikes! How was I going to afford gelato?
Our recent history has included a very strong dollar. This recent period of strength began toward the middle of 2014. During this time, it became less attractive to invest in foreign markets because these securities had significant currency losses when converted back to the U.S. Dollar.
While the current weakening dollar may mean that some poor college student is forced to eat gelato for lunch instead of a snack, it also means that international investment returns get a little tailwind.
I went and checked the rates around the time of my college trip. If I had stayed there for 6 months, worked some odd jobs and come back to the US with the same €367, they would have exchanged it for $540. That’s an 8% return.
As US investors, it’s important to pay attention to how the international market is behaving. The panel on the left shows that US returns were stronger from 2005 to 2019, followed by EM, Europe ex-UK and then Japan.
Now let’s look at what happened when the pandemic first hit. The middle panel highlights the role international exposure could have played in your portfolio during the initial sharp market declines in the first quarter. Japan lost significantly less than the US. Emerging Markets, even with the purple drag of having to convert their returns to US dollars, lost about the same as the United States.
As the world emerged from the deep crisis, on the right-side panel, the United States is not the only place seeing the stock market recover significantly. International markets have enjoyed a significant tailwind from a weakening US dollar. Additionally, the earnings decline on the emerging market column is actually less than the United States. There are some very interesting things happening abroad that support staying globally diversified.
https://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.png00Sarah Bomhoff, CFA, CIPMhttps://thirtynorth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/LOGO-ThirtyNorth-Rev2017-1.pngSarah Bomhoff, CFA, CIPM2020-08-20 09:12:172020-08-28 10:22:24Thoughts in Charts: Keeping a Global Perspective
Choosing the Right Financial Road
When you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there. – Lewis Carroll.
This is true in life, careers, and our financial futures. It is particularly relevant when the stock market is as volatile as it has been throughout 2020. Our human tendency is to react in ways that undermine our long-term investment success, motivated through either fear or greed. We are especially susceptible when we don’t have clarity about where we are going
In her recent CityBusiness article, Suzanne outlines 3 tips to choosing the road for your financial future. Click here to read more.
For disclosures, please click here.
Thoughts in Charts: Municipal Bond Double-Take
I love when a chart makes you do a double take. When a chart makes you go “Yes!” but then after another minute “Oh”.
Because municipal bond yield is usually exempt from state, local and federal taxes, investors are willing to take less yield than they would for a treasury – thus the squiggly line is under 100 most of the time.
Cue 2020. Yield from 10-year yield from municipals is now better than what we can get from a 10-year treasury.
Wait, wait, before you think you figured out how to get some steady income from municipal issued bonds, it’s worth a pause to remember the math driving the line in this chart. The 10-year treasury yield (the base of the number) has gone from well over 2% to about .70%. It doesn’t take much muni yield to create a number that will graph higher than 100.
In fact, muni yield has been on a wild ride in 2020, but has settled out at an all-time low as well. Ouch! The main advantage of buying a municipal fund is the tax savings on the yield. Unfortunately, this space is also facing significant challenges as municipalities and states struggle with revenue losses during COVID. It is unclear how badly our local governments are struggling because their fiscal year has just ended, and they don’t report for several more months.
Clearly this is a space we are watching closely.
For disclosures, please click here.
Is a 60/40 Investment Allocation for Everyone?
One of the most important choices we have with our investments is the allocation of our dollars. How much will we invest in stocks, in bonds, or in any other assets? Large or small, growth or value? Studies have shown that over 90% of the returns on our investments are driven by this very basic decision. It should not be taken lightly, and many questions should be asked to help determine which allocation makes the most sense for our situation and risk tolerance.
As we read about this topic, we often find that 60% stocks/40% bonds has become almost a classic for a balanced portfolio. Do we really believe this to be the right allocation, or are we just unwittingly using 60/40 more often than not? Most importantly, it should reflect our unique needs and goals.
There are times when an investor will likely want to invest more or less aggressively. For example, a 100% stock portfolio may be great when you are 35, with a very long runway until retirement to absorb market fluctuations. It’s not always so wise when you need to tap your investments for living expenses in retirement.
The best retirement plans consider the answers to a host of differing questions:
Your answers to these questions, as well as many others, should create a plan reflective of you and your needs.
Why is the 60/40 allocation so common? It’s a good balance when you need it.
The 60% often reflects the need for continued investment growth historically obtained from stocks. With life expectancy increasing, many people are planning a 30+ year retirement. In contrast, bonds traditionally provide relative stability and fixed income. In our current low interest rate environment, though, the income aspect may become harder to achieve. As we age in retirement, the stocks/bonds ratio may move to 50/50 then to 40/60 and so on. It should be a process customized to your situation.
In the years leading up to your retirement, you should carefully consider your very personal answers to the questions above and plan accordingly. And don’t be surprised if it leads to a 60% stocks/40% bonds allocation along the way!
For disclosures, please click here.
Thin(k) About Your 403(b) Plan: Catch-Up Contributions – A 403(b) Plan’s Special Extra
We talk a lot about 401(k) plans, but many nonprofit organizations including churches, non-profit hospitals and public-school systems use the 403(b) as a qualified retirement plan for employees. And, like the 401(k), you can “catch-up” in the 403(b), which has a very interesting additional catch-up provision. As in a 401(k), employees who are 50 years of age and older in a 403(b) can make contributions beyond the maximum allowed. These amounts are determined annually. For 2020, employees can save $19,500 and those over 50 can make a catch-up contribution of an additional $6,500.
Here is where it gets interesting. As long as the plan allows, employees with 15 years of service are eligible to make a catch-up contribution prior to reaching 50 year of age. Of course, there is a limit to how much, which is determined by the lesser of:
You might wonder, what happens if an employee is eligible for both the 50-year-old and the 15 years of service catch-up provisions. As long as the plan allows, the participant can use both. However, the 15-year catch-up is subject to a lifetime limit of $15,000 as well as other tests; and savings in excess of the limit must be first applied to the 15-year catch-up. Additionally, Click here for additional information on 403(b) contribution limits. And, make sure you talk to your tax professional before taking advantage of this potentially great way to save more for retirement through your 403(b) plan.
For disclosures, please click here.
Thoughts in Charts: U.S. Currency
I took a trip to Europe after I graduated from college. My parents bought the plane ticket, and I was responsible for my “walking around” money. I wasn’t in the habit of following the currency market, so standing at the exchange counter it was pretty devastating to realize that my $500 was actually just going to be €367 Euros. Yikes! How was I going to afford gelato?
Our recent history has included a very strong dollar. This recent period of strength began toward the middle of 2014. During this time, it became less attractive to invest in foreign markets because these securities had significant currency losses when converted back to the U.S. Dollar.
While the current weakening dollar may mean that some poor college student is forced to eat gelato for lunch instead of a snack, it also means that international investment returns get a little tailwind.
I went and checked the rates around the time of my college trip. If I had stayed there for 6 months, worked some odd jobs and come back to the US with the same €367, they would have exchanged it for $540. That’s an 8% return.
I told my parents I should have stayed longer!
For disclosures, please click here.
Thoughts in Charts: Keeping a Global Perspective
As US investors, it’s important to pay attention to how the international market is behaving. The panel on the left shows that US returns were stronger from 2005 to 2019, followed by EM, Europe ex-UK and then Japan.
Now let’s look at what happened when the pandemic first hit. The middle panel highlights the role international exposure could have played in your portfolio during the initial sharp market declines in the first quarter. Japan lost significantly less than the US. Emerging Markets, even with the purple drag of having to convert their returns to US dollars, lost about the same as the United States.
As the world emerged from the deep crisis, on the right-side panel, the United States is not the only place seeing the stock market recover significantly. International markets have enjoyed a significant tailwind from a weakening US dollar. Additionally, the earnings decline on the emerging market column is actually less than the United States. There are some very interesting things happening abroad that support staying globally diversified.
For disclosures, please click here.